Every fall, one Social Security number grabs the headlines: the cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA (the yearly raise that keeps benefits roughly even with inflation). But the COLA is only one of several numbers that reset for 2027, and most of them are not official yet. This guide separates what is already locked into law from what is still an estimate, so you know which figures you can plan around today and which ones to wait on.
One honest caveat up front: as of August 10, 2026, the only 2027 Social Security number that is truly settled is the full retirement age. The COLA, the taxable wage base, the Medicare Part B premium, and the earnings-test limits for 2027 are all announced later this year. Anyone quoting exact 2027 dollar figures today is estimating.
The one 2027 change that is already law: full retirement age hits 67
Full retirement age (FRA) is the age at which you can claim 100 percent of your Social Security benefit, with no early-claiming reduction and no delayed-retirement bonus. For everyone born in 1960 or later, that age is exactly 67. People born in 1960 turn 67 in 2027, so 2027 is the first year the age-67 FRA actually applies to anyone. This is fixed law, the final step of the increase written into the 1983 Social Security Amendments, which raised full retirement age from 65 to 67 across birth-year cohorts (with a plateau at 66 for people born 1943 to 1954). It is not an estimate and it will not change in October.
Why it matters in dollars: you can still claim as early as 62, but claiming before FRA permanently cuts your monthly check, and claiming after FRA (up to age 70) permanently raises it. For someone with a $2,000 FRA benefit, claiming at 62 drops it to about $1,400, while waiting until 70 lifts it to roughly $2,480. Same person, same work record, and the timing alone moves the check by more than $1,000 a month.
The 2027 COLA: still just an estimate until mid-October
The 2026 COLA is a settled 2.8 percent, in effect since January 2026. The 2027 COLA is not set. The leading unofficial forecast, from The Senior Citizens League, currently sits at about 3.8 percent, and estimates across analysts run roughly 3.6 to 3.8 percent. Treat every one of those as an estimate. The official number arrives in mid-October 2026, once the September inflation report is published, because the COLA is calculated from third-quarter Consumer Price Index data.
We are not re-deriving the COLA math here. For exactly how the formula works and how the estimate has moved this year, see our deeper post on the 2027 COLA estimate.
Medicare Part B: the quiet bite out of your raise
Here is the part the COLA headline hides. If you are on Medicare, your Part B premium (the monthly cost for doctor visits and outpatient care) is deducted straight from your Social Security check. Part B premiums reset every fall too, and when they rise, they eat part of your COLA before it ever reaches your bank account.
The 2026 standard Part B premium is $202.90 a month, up from $185.00 in 2025, a $17.90 increase. The annual Part B deductible is $283. The 2027 premium is not announced until late 2026, so any 2027 Part B figure floating around now is an estimate.
Worked example, using the 2026 actual numbers:
- The average retired worker’s benefit rose from $2,015 to $2,071 in January 2026, a $56 raise from the 2.8 percent COLA.
- The standard Part B premium rose $17.90 in the same window.
- Because Part B comes out of the check, about $17.90 of that $56 raise was absorbed by the premium. Net raise: roughly $38 a month.
That is not a reason to ignore the COLA. It is a reason to budget the net number, not the headline percentage.
The taxable maximum (wage base): what high earners owe
The taxable maximum, or wage base, is the ceiling on earnings subject to the 6.2 percent Social Security payroll tax. For 2026 it is $184,500, up from $176,100 in 2025. Earn above that and you pay no more Social Security tax on the extra dollars (Medicare tax, by contrast, has no cap). If you want the mechanics of the payroll taxes coming out of your paycheck, see our guide to what FICA is.
For a worker earning exactly the 2026 cap, the maximum Social Security tax is $184,500 times 6.2 percent, which comes to $11,439. The 2027 wage base is announced in October 2026 alongside the COLA. It usually rises with average wages, but the exact figure is an estimate until then.
Earnings-test limits: only if you work while collecting early
If you claim Social Security before FRA and keep working, the retirement earnings test can temporarily withhold part of your benefit. For 2026:
- Under FRA for the whole year: you can earn $24,480 ($2,040 a month) before $1 is withheld for every $2 you earn above the limit.
- In the year you reach FRA: a higher limit of $65,160 applies ($5,430 a month), only $1 is withheld for every $3 over, and it counts only the months before your birthday. From the month you hit FRA, the test disappears entirely.
Important and widely misunderstood: withheld benefits are not lost. Once you reach FRA, Social Security recalculates your benefit and pays the withheld amount back over time. The 2027 limits are estimated until the October announcement.
Fixed vs estimated: the 2027 cheat sheet
| Item | 2026 (settled) | 2027 status |
|---|---|---|
| Full retirement age (born 1960) | 67 | Fixed law, certain |
| COLA | 2.8% | Estimate, about 3.6 to 3.8%, official mid-Oct 2026 |
| Standard Part B premium | $202.90 / month | Announced late 2026, estimate only |
| Part B deductible | $283 / year | Announced late 2026, estimate only |
| Taxable wage base | $184,500 | Announced Oct 2026, estimate only |
| Earnings test, under FRA all year | $24,480 / year | Announced Oct 2026, estimate only |
| Earnings test, year reaching FRA | $65,160 / year | Announced Oct 2026, estimate only |
What this means for your own plan
Social Security was never designed to be your whole retirement. It replaces only about 40 percent of pre-retirement income for an average earner. The COLA keeps it from losing ground to inflation, but Part B and payroll taxes quietly claw some of that back, which is exactly why your own savings do the heavy lifting.
To pressure-test your number, run your expected benefit and savings through our retirement calculator, then sanity-check the target against our guides on how much you need to retire and the 4 percent rule for how much you can safely withdraw each year.
FAQ
Is the 2027 COLA confirmed yet?
No. As of August 2026 it is an estimate, roughly 3.6 to 3.8 percent, with The Senior Citizens League forecasting about 3.8 percent. The official figure is announced in mid-October 2026 after the September inflation data is released. Do not budget around an exact 2027 COLA dollar amount yet.
Why did my Social Security raise feel smaller than the COLA?
Because your Medicare Part B premium is deducted from your check, and it usually rises at the same time. In 2026 the standard premium went up $17.90 a month, offsetting a chunk of the average $56 COLA raise. You feel the net amount, not the headline percentage.
What is fixed for 2027 no matter what?
Full retirement age. For anyone born in 1960 or later it is exactly 67, and 2027 is the first year that group reaches it. That is set by the 1983 law and will not change in the fall announcements.
Does working after I claim reduce my Social Security permanently?
Not permanently, when it is due to the earnings test. Before FRA, earning over the limit ($24,480 in 2026) temporarily withholds part of your benefit, but once you reach FRA the amount is recalculated and paid back. After FRA there is no earnings limit at all.
Sources
The Social Security Administration 2026 COLA Fact Sheet (ssa.gov) supports the 2.8 percent 2026 COLA, the $184,500 taxable maximum (up from $176,100), and the average retired-worker benefit rising from $2,015 to $2,071. Accessed August 10, 2026.
The Social Security Administration Retirement Earnings Test Exempt Amounts page (ssa.gov/oact/cola/rtea.html) supports the 2026 earnings-test limits of $24,480 for people under FRA all year and $65,160 for the year a person reaches FRA. Accessed August 10, 2026.
The Social Security Administration Normal Retirement Age table (ssa.gov/oact/progdata/nra.html) supports the full retirement age of 67 for people born in 1960 and later, first reached in 2027. Accessed August 10, 2026.
The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Medicare Deductible, Coinsurance and Premium Rates CY 2026 Update (document MM14279, cms.gov) supports the $202.90 standard monthly Part B premium and the $283 annual Part B deductible. Accessed August 10, 2026.
The Senior Citizens League COLA Watch (seniorsleague.org) supports the unofficial 2027 COLA estimate of about 3.8 percent, cited here as an estimate only pending the official October 2026 announcement. Accessed August 10, 2026.
