Search “2027 COLA” right now and you will find several different numbers, and most of them are already out of date. Back in June, one widely-quoted forecast floated an increase near 4.7%. Then the June inflation data cooled it to the high-3s. Now the July inflation report - released August 12, 2026 - has trimmed the estimates again, into a band of roughly 3.2% to 3.6%.
None of those numbers are wrong, exactly. They are snapshots of a forecast that moves every time a new inflation report lands, and July’s report was the first of the three that actually count. The official 2027 COLA will not exist until the Social Security Administration announces it on October 14, 2026. Everything before that date is an educated guess. Here is where the guesses stand after the July data, what they would mean in dollars, and how the real number gets computed.
Where the 2027 COLA estimates stand right now
Every major forecaster updated on August 12, the day the July inflation report came out, and every one of them moved down from its mid-July figure:
| Estimate source | Latest update | 2027 COLA projection | Change from mid-July |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) | August 12, 2026 | 3.6% | down from 3.8% |
| AARP | August 12, 2026 | 3.5% | down from 3.6% |
| Mary Johnson, independent Social Security analyst | August 12, 2026 | 3.4% | down from 3.7% |
| Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) | August 12, 2026 | 3.2% | new this month |
That puts the serious estimates in a 3.2% to 3.6% range, clustered around 3.4% to 3.5%. TSCL sits at the top, CRFB at the bottom, and the gap between them is genuinely small - on a typical benefit it is worth only a few dollars a month.
One important caution before you anchor on any single figure: the July inflation report showed the CPI-W (the specific index behind the COLA) up 3.4% over the past year. That 3.4% is the annual inflation rate, not the COLA. The COLA is calculated a different way - a three-month average compared against last year’s - and on the July data alone it is running closer to 3.1%. More on that mechanics below.
Why the number cooled again in July
The forecasts have been drifting down for months as inflation moderated. In June, analyst Mary Johnson’s model pointed to a 4.7% COLA; by mid-July she had cut it to 3.7%. The July inflation report, released August 12, pushed her to 3.4%. In her words, “a moderation in inflation has resulted in bringing down my estimate from higher peaks earlier this year.”
The July report itself was the trigger. The CPI-W rose 3.4% over the prior twelve months (cooling from 3.5% in June), and for the month it was essentially unchanged before seasonal adjustment. A flat month is what pulled the projections down another notch: TSCL from 3.8% to 3.6%, AARP from 3.6% to 3.5%, Johnson from 3.7% to 3.4%.
The 2027 COLA will be computed from the July, August, and September 2026 inflation readings. As of today, only July is published. The other two months do not exist yet, which is exactly why the estimates keep moving - each forecaster is guessing what August and September will show.
What 3.2% to 3.6% means in real dollars
The Social Security Administration’s latest figure for the average retired-worker benefit is $2,085.98 a month, from its July 2026 Monthly Statistical Snapshot. Applying the current estimate range to that benefit:
- At 3.6% (TSCL’s estimate): the average benefit rises about $75 a month, to roughly $2,161 - close to $900 more over a full year.
- At 3.5% (AARP’s estimate): an increase of about $73 a month, or roughly $876 a year.
- At 3.4% (Mary Johnson’s estimate): about $71 a month, or roughly $851 a year.
- At 3.2% (CRFB’s estimate): about $67 a month, to roughly $2,153 - close to $801 a year.
Your own increase would be your benefit times the final percentage, so a bigger check means a bigger dollar bump. For comparison, the COLA now in effect - the 2026 adjustment - is 2.8%, which works out to about $58 a month on that same benefit. If the current projections hold, the 2027 raise would run roughly $9 to $17 more per month than this year’s.
TSCL frames the dollars slightly differently, using the average across all beneficiaries rather than retired workers alone: it puts the current average at $1,937.53 and projects a rise of $69.75, to $2,007.28, under its 3.6% estimate. Both figures are real SSA-derived numbers - they simply describe different groups.
A COLA protects a benefit’s purchasing power; it does not make anyone richer in real terms. If you are still building the savings that will sit alongside Social Security, our retirement calculator shows what your own contributions could grow into, and our guide to how much you need to retire puts a Social Security check in context next to the 401(k) and IRA side of the plan.
How the COLA is actually computed
The formula is fixed in law, and it is narrower than most people assume. The Social Security Administration uses the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers - the CPI-W, a cousin of the headline CPI - and compares two three-month windows:
- Take the average CPI-W for the third quarter of 2026 (the July, August, and September readings).
- Divide it by the average CPI-W for the third quarter of 2025, which came to 317.265.
- The percentage increase, rounded to the nearest 0.1%, is the COLA.
That is the whole calculation. SSA’s official notice for the current 2.8% COLA, published in the Federal Register, spells out the same third-quarter-over-third-quarter method and the rounding rule.
This is where the “3.4% is not the COLA” point matters. July’s CPI-W came in at an index level of 327.104. Measured against the 317.265 baseline, that is about 3.1% higher - so on July’s number alone, the running COLA is around 3.1%, not 3.4%. The forecasters land higher than 3.1% because their models assume August and September keep climbing. For the average to reach 3.5%, the three months would need to average about 328.4, meaning August and September have to come in noticeably above July’s 327.104. Even the low-end 3.2% estimate needs those two months to edge up from here.
Only those three months count - a hot inflation report in May or a cool one in November changes nothing, which is why the estimates jump around until the third-quarter data is complete.
The dates that matter
- August 12, 2026 - the July CPI report landed. It was the first of the three counting months, and every major forecaster refreshed its estimate the same day.
- September 11, 2026 - the August CPI report, the second counting month.
- October 14, 2026 - the September CPI report lands at 8:30 a.m. ET, completing the third quarter. SSA announces the official 2027 COLA the same morning.
- December 31, 2026 - SSI recipients get the first payment reflecting the new COLA; the January 2027 SSI payment goes out early because January 1 is a holiday.
- January 2027 - Social Security benefit checks reflect the increase. Technically the COLA applies to December 2026 benefits, which are paid in January 2027.
The Medicare Part B asterisk
One caveat before anyone spends a projected raise. Most retirees have their Medicare Part B premium deducted straight from their Social Security check - the standard premium is $202.90 a month in 2026, per Medicare’s official figures. The Medicare Trustees Report projects the 2027 standard premium at $209.50 a month, up about $6.60, though that is a projection under the Trustees’ assumptions, not an announced number. CMS will not set the actual 2027 premium until around November 2026.
Premiums reset each fall, and when Part B rises it absorbs part of the COLA before the deposit reaches your bank. Net effect: your January 2027 raise will likely be somewhat smaller than the headline COLA times your benefit. For the pieces of your 2027 benefit that are already fixed - like the full retirement age reaching 67 - see our companion post on the 2027 Social Security changes beyond the COLA.
FAQ
Is 3.6% the final 2027 COLA?
No. It is the top of the current forecaster range (TSCL’s estimate); AARP is at 3.5%, Mary Johnson at 3.4%, and CRFB at 3.2%. All of them can still move as the August and September inflation reports arrive. The final number lands October 14, 2026, and it could fall outside today’s range if inflation surprises.
Why is the “3.4% inflation” number different from the COLA estimates?
Because they measure different things. The 3.4% is how much the CPI-W rose over the past twelve months. The COLA compares the July-through-September average of 2026 against the same three months of 2025. On July’s reading alone that comparison is running about 3.1%; the forecasters’ 3.2% to 3.6% figures assume August and September come in higher.
When would I actually see the bigger payment?
January 2027 for Social Security benefits. SSI recipients see it slightly earlier, in the payment dated December 31, 2026, because the January 1 payment date falls on a holiday.
Why do TSCL, AARP, Mary Johnson, and CRFB disagree?
They run different models on the same incomplete data - mostly differing in how they project the next two months of inflation. The entire disagreement, from 3.2% to 3.6%, is currently worth only about $8 a month on the average retired-worker benefit.
Does a bigger COLA mean I am better off?
Not really - it means prices rose faster. The COLA is designed to keep a benefit’s purchasing power flat, not to increase it. That is the same reason retirement withdrawal frameworks like the 4% rule build in annual inflation adjustments: keeping pace is the goal, and anything that outpaces inflation has to come from your own savings and investments.
Sources
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - Consumer Price Index Summary, July 2026 (USDL-26-1378): CPI-W up 3.4% over the year to an index level of 327.104, unchanged for the month (released August 12, 2026)
- The Senior Citizens League - “COLA Projection Falls to 3.6% With 2 Months Remaining to 2027 Announcement,” citing the July CPI-W and the $1,937.53 to $2,007.28 illustration (August 12, 2026)
- AARP - 2027 COLA estimate of 3.5%, updated after the July CPI-W report (August 12, 2026)
- CNBC - Mary Johnson’s revised 3.4% estimate (from 3.7% in July and 4.7% in June) and the CRFB 3.2% figure, in the post-report roundup (August 12, 2026)
- Social Security Administration - “Cost-of-Living Increase and Other Determinations for 2026,” Federal Register: the 2.8% COLA, the CPI-W third-quarter methodology, the 317.265 Q3 2025 average, and payment timing (November 3, 2025)
- Social Security Administration - Monthly Statistical Snapshot, July 2026: average retired-worker benefit of $2,085.98
- 2026 Medicare Trustees Report (CMS Office of the Actuary) - projected 2027 standard Part B premium of $209.50, up from $202.90, under intermediate assumptions (June 9, 2026)
